Most weekends several of the Sunday newspapers will carry opinion polls taking the latest political temperature. This is especially true at the moment when everyone knows that by this time next year we will have had a General Election.
Sometimes the figures are up for a Party and some times they are down. On the same day a Party has a big lead, another poll, taken over the same time frame can show a much smaller percentage ahead.
The fact is, no matter how sophisticated polling techniques become there is still only one poll that counts and that is the one on polling day itself. Harold Wilson found this out in 1970, when the Labour Party led through that summer election campaign only to find that Ted Heath became Prime Minister with a working majority of 30. Similarly in 1992, it seemed Labour were heading for a win but John Major held on, at the height of a recession, with a majority of 21 and he remained Prime Minister for a further five years.
Politicians keep an eye on the polls but it is important in an election to work right up until the last moment to make sure that the story told by the polls becomes the real life truth once the actual votes are counted. No complacency allowed!
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